1. The "PV GDP" market mainly in developing countries
1.1. Market demand and growth momentum
Developing countries that are in a stage of rapid economic growth have an increasing demand for electricity. However, traditional energy supply methods often cannot meet this rapidly growing demand, and are accompanied by the dual challenges of environmental pollution and energy security. The photovoltaic industry, with its clean and renewable characteristics, has become an important choice for these countries to solve energy problems and promote economic growth.
Take India as an example. As the second most populous country in the world, India's electricity demand is huge and continues to grow. However, for a long time, India has a serious shortage of electricity supply, especially in remote and rural areas. According to Indian government data, India has more than 90 million people without electricity, and hundreds of millions of people lack electricity.
The development of cheap and convenient photovoltaic power generation provides India with an effective way to solve the problem of power shortage.
In recent years, the Indian government has attached great importance to the development of the photovoltaic industry and has introduced a series of encouraging policies, including providing long-term power purchase contracts, tax incentives and subsidies. These policies have greatly stimulated market vitality and promoted the rapid growth of the photovoltaic market.
Statistics show that in the first half of 2024, India's new photovoltaic installed capacity reached 14.9 GW, a year-on-year increase of 282%, exceeding all previous first-half installed capacity. Among them, India's rooftop photovoltaic installed capacity increased by 1.1GW, a year-on-year increase of 26%.
As of August 2024, India's total photovoltaic installed capacity reached 89.43GW, accounting for more than 58.58% of its renewable energy installed capacity (excluding large hydropower). Among them, ground-mounted solar installations accounted for 69.19 GW, and another 2.59 GW came from hybrid solar panels. In rural areas with limited electricity supply, off-grid installations such as solar lanterns and microgrids totaled 3.76 GW.
With the continuous increase in installed capacity, Indian photovoltaics have become an important force in the global photovoltaic market.
Similar to this is Vietnam. As an emerging economy in Southeast Asia, Vietnam has experienced rapid economic development, accelerated industrialization and urbanization in recent years, and electricity demand has also increased accordingly. Public data shows that Vietnam's electricity demand is surging at an annual rate of 10-12%. Therefore, the Vietnamese government actively introduces foreign capital and technology to promote the development of the photovoltaic industry.
It is worth noting that Chinese photovoltaic companies occupy an important position in the Vietnamese market and have undertaken a number of large-scale photovoltaic power station projects. For example, the Youting Solar Power Station in Vietnam is the largest solar power station in Southeast Asia undertaken by China Power Construction Group. The project has an installed capacity of nearly 500 megawatts, providing strong support for Vietnam's power supply.
Let's look at developing countries in Latin America such as Brazil, Argentina and Mexico. The power supply of these countries mainly relies on hydropower, but in recent years, with the increase in global climate extremes, especially the drought caused by the El Niño phenomenon, hydropower has been severely affected, resulting in unstable power supply and significant obstacles to regional economic development.
According to the latest reports, Argentina has adopted planned power outages in response to the surge in air-conditioning electricity consumption. The drought in Brazil is also severe, affecting about 59% of the country, causing a shortage of power supply.
In order to solve this dilemma, these countries have turned to the field of new energy, especially photovoltaic power generation, and gradually showed great development potential.
Data shows that in 2023, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power in Latin America reached a record high, with the new capacity jumping to 21 gigawatts, and it is expected to further increase to 23 gigawatts in 2024. Among them, the demand for photovoltaic power in Brazil, Chile and Mexico continues to rise, becoming the focus of global photovoltaic industry investment.
Brazil has performed particularly well in this transformation. Its new version of the "Accelerated Growth Plan" focuses on the development of photovoltaic and wind power, especially the establishment of new photovoltaic power generation projects in the northeast region. In 2023, Brazil's new photovoltaic installed capacity will increase by 7 GW, and the total installed capacity will climb to 44 GW, accounting for 18.9% of its total electricity supply.
1.2. Economic benefits of the photovoltaic industry
The development of the photovoltaic industry is not only conducive to solving the problem of power shortage in developing countries, but also drives the development of related industrial chains. Since the construction and operation of photovoltaic power stations require a lot of manpower, material and financial resources, it can drive the development of multiple industries such as manufacturing, construction, and financial services. At the same time, the operation and maintenance of photovoltaic power stations also require a large number of professionals, providing a large number of employment opportunities for the local area.
Taking India as an example, the government has attracted a large number of domestic and foreign companies to enter the Indian photovoltaic market by providing favorable policies such as tax incentives and subsidies, which has promoted the rapid development of the photovoltaic industry. According to data from the Indian Solar Energy Association, India's photovoltaic industry has become one of the most promising industries in the country, making important contributions to economic growth and job creation.
1.3. Future Outlook
Under the accelerated transformation of global energy and the need to enhance economic development, the photovoltaic industry in developing countries still has a very broad space for development. It is expected that policy support will continue to be increased to promote technological innovation and industrial upgrading in the photovoltaic industry and accelerate the reduction of photovoltaic power generation costs.
However, it is also necessary to see that for most developing countries, the popularization and application of photovoltaic power generation still needs to overcome many difficulties. For example, the funding problem of photovoltaic projects is still a major constraint, and the lack of grid construction and energy storage technology also constitutes an obstacle to the effective output of photovoltaic power.
It is worth noting that with the increasing participation of Chinese companies in the green energy industry chain, the cooperative relationship between China and developing countries in neighboring and Latin America is deepening. According to the analysis of the Brazilian Export and Investment Promotion Agency, cooperation with Chinese companies is expected to promote energy transformation in Latin America and promote technology exchanges and capital inflows.
2. The "Photovoltaic Energy Security" Market in Some Developed Countries, including Europe
2.1. Energy Security and Self-sufficiency
For developed countries, such as Europe, energy security is an important cornerstone for maintaining national security and economic development.
In recent years, with the changes in the global energy landscape and the increase in geopolitical risks, European countries have become increasingly aware of the importance of energy self-sufficiency. The photovoltaic industry, with its clean and renewable characteristics, has become an important way for European countries to achieve energy structure transformation and ensure energy security.
Take Germany, the leader of the European photovoltaic industry, as an example. In recent years, the German photovoltaic market has developed rapidly and matured. The local government encourages residents and enterprises to install photovoltaic systems by providing subsidies, preferential loans and tax incentives.
Especially for balcony photovoltaics, Germany is the largest market for balcony photovoltaics in Europe, and its leading position is stable.
It is understood that on sunny days, balcony photovoltaic systems can meet most of the electricity needs of ordinary two-person households in Germany. In periods of sharp increases in energy prices, small photovoltaic equipment that is easy to install can recover its costs in about 2-4 years.
According to data from relevant statistical agencies, Germany will have 220,000 new installed capacity of plug-in balcony photovoltaic systems in the first half of 2024, reaching 200MW. The installed capacity in the second quarter tripled compared with the first quarter, and the average registered total capacity has increased from 800W last year to about 900W this year.
Let's take a look at France. As one of the important economies in Europe, France's energy structure is mainly nuclear energy. However, in recent years, the French government has also begun to pay attention to the development of renewable energy such as photovoltaics, and has formulated a series of transformation strategies and support policies to promote the development of the photovoltaic industry.
At present, the French photovoltaic market is in a rapid development stage and is expected to maintain a high growth trend in the next few years.
2.2. The rise of agricultural photovoltaics
It is worth noting that in recent years, European countries are still exploring the development model of agricultural photovoltaics.
For example, as a world-renowned agricultural power, the Netherlands has been actively promoting the implementation of agricultural photovoltaic projects, encouraging farmers to install photovoltaic panels above farmland through policy support and financial subsidies. These photovoltaic panels not only provide shading effects for farmland, reduce water evaporation and pesticide use, but also use solar power to generate electricity, bringing additional economic benefits to farmers.
In addition, agricultural photovoltaic projects in the Netherlands also focus on connecting with smart grids, achieving flexible dispatching and storage of electricity, and improving the stability and reliability of the power system.
2.3. Future Outlook
Favorable policies are continuing to boost the demand for balcony photovoltaics in Europe.
Data show that Germany currently has a population of more than 83 million, including more than 40 million households. A survey by a professional institution showed that 69% of eligible owners intend to install household photovoltaic systems, and 16% of owners have planned to install them within the next year. It can be seen that the installation space for household photovoltaic systems in Germany has just been opened.
It is particularly noteworthy that on July 4, the lower house of the German Parliament passed a legislative amendment allowing apartment owners and tenants to install solar power generation systems on their balconies, which cannot be stopped by landlords or homeowners associations without legitimate reasons. In Germany, the proportion of renters is close to half of the total population. Now the new bill protects the rights of tenants to use balcony photovoltaic systems, and a huge user group is coming.
At the same time, the German government has also set a goal of installing 215GW photovoltaic systems by 2030, which requires an increase of 22GW of photovoltaic systems each year.
In addition, the rise of emerging models such as agricultural photovoltaics will also bring new growth points to the European photovoltaic market.
3. The "photovoltaic special application" market represented by areas without electricity caused by war, etc.
3.1. Energy shortage under the background of war
Conflicts and wars in Russia, Ukraine, Palestine and Israel have led to serious energy shortages. The infrastructure in these areas may be severely damaged, and power supply interruptions have become the norm. In such areas with imperfect power systems, photovoltaic special applications represented by photovoltaic microgrids are particularly important.
Photovoltaic microgrid refers to an independent power system composed of photovoltaic power stations, energy storage systems, distribution systems and power loads. It can be quickly deployed and put into operation in a short time without the support of a large power grid, providing local residents with a stable power supply.
The advantages of photovoltaic microgrids are its independent networking and flexible deployment characteristics, which can quickly respond to changes in power demand in a short time. At the same time, photovoltaic microgrids can also be combined with traditional energy systems to form a complementary power supply mode and improve the stability and reliability of the power system.
It is understood that in 2024, in the Ukrainian and Gaza markets, photovoltaic storage microgrids will become the first choice for residents under war.
In some conflict areas in Ukraine, the traditional energy supply system has been destroyed, and power supply interruptions have become the norm. In order to ensure the basic living needs of local residents, the local area provides emergency power supply to local residents by installing portable photovoltaic power stations and solar charging stations.
On July 24 this year, when the Ukrainian Foreign Minister visited China, he specifically invited Chinese companies to strengthen cooperation with Ukraine in the field of renewable energy. According to statistics from Kaiyuandianxin, Ukraine's power gap in winter is about 6GW, but if the heating facilities are hit and the use of distributed power increases, Ukraine's demand for renewable energy will be even stronger.
Due to the long-term impact of war and conflict in the Palestinian region, the power supply is unstable and the price is high. Solar street lights, solar water heaters and other equipment can be seen everywhere, providing clean and cheap energy solutions for local residents.
In Gaza, where the conflict is the most intense, photovoltaics are also becoming one of the main forms of energy supply. People use photovoltaics to solve most of their energy needs. Even if they are hit by the Israeli army, they can quickly rebuild.
3.2. Challenges and solutions
However, in the development of the photovoltaic special application market, there are also some challenges.
First, areas without electricity often have weak infrastructure and imperfect power transmission and distribution systems, which bring certain difficulties to the construction and operation of photovoltaic power stations.
Secondly, these regions are often economically backward, with low income levels and limited purchasing power and ability to pay for photovoltaic products.
In order to overcome these challenges, a series of measures need to be taken. For example, through government assistance and international cooperation, necessary infrastructure construction and financial support should be provided to these regions.
